- We have revised our 2014-2016 average real GDP growth projections for Ireland upward to 2.7% from 2.0%.
- This reflects our expectation of a continued strong external performance and a sustained recovery of the domestic economy.
- We are therefore raising our long-term sovereign credit ratings on Ireland to ‘A-‘ from ‘BBB+’. We are affirming the short-term ratings at ‘A-2’.
- The outlook is positive, reflecting our view of at least a one-in-three possibility that we could raise our ratings on Ireland again in the next two years.
On June 6, 2014, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Ireland to ‘A-‘ from ‘BBB+’. At the same time, we affirmed the short-term ratings at ‘A-2’. The outlook is positive.
New York, May 16, 2014
Moody’s Investors Service has today upgraded Ireland’s rating by two notches to Baa1 from Baa3. At Baa1, the outlook is stable. Concurrently, the short-term rating has been upgraded to P-2 from P-3.
The key drivers of the upgrade of Ireland’s rating are the following:
- A step change in future debt levels. Moody’s expects that the recent pick-up in Ireland’s growth momentum will speed up ongoing fiscal consolidation and put the government’s debt metrics on a steeper downward path than previously anticipated, leading to a significantly improved outlook for Ireland’s medium-term public debt trajectory.
- Very sharp reduction in off-balance sheet exposures. The recovery in the Irish property market has resulted in a considerable recent reduction in government contingent liabilities, due both to the accelerated asset sales of Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and to the disposal of the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation (IBRC) portfolio.
- Improved credit position relative to peers. Compared to other Baa-rated euro area sovereigns, including Italy (Baa2 stable) and Spain (Baa2 positive), Ireland’s credit profile is recovering more quickly from the euro area debt crisis as a result of its economy’s dynamism and growth prospects. This assessment informs the two-notch upgrade, repositioning the rating at the top of Ireland’s scorecard-implied rating range.
New York, January 17, 2014
Moody’s Investors Service has today upgraded Ireland’s government debt ratings to Baa3/P-3 from Ba1/NP. The outlook on the ratings is now positive.
The two main drivers for the upgrade are:
- The growth potential of the Irish economy, which together with ongoing fiscal consolidation is expected to bring government debt ratios down from their recent peak;
- The Irish government’s exit from its EU/IMF support programme on schedule, with improved solvency and restored market access.